Tuesday, June 11, 2013

Jimmie Johnson Won at Pocono (and how have my other predictions done)

It's been a month since our last prediction check.  Let's see how I've done.

Each week, when I film a video for BSports, I provide the names of a few drivers who I believe will do well at that upcoming track, based on the stats of their past performances.

Remember, these are the goals:

  • Highlight drivers with strengths at the specific track that weekend.
  • Identify drivers who, based on my statistical models, have a greater-than-expected chance to shine each week
  • Predict an overall winner

Let's see how I've done.

All-Star Race:
Picks
Jimmie Johnson (WON the race and led 10 laps)
Kyle Busch (led 29 laps and finished 3rd)
Ryan Newman (finished 13th)

Dover:
Favorites
Jeff Gordon (finished 3rd)
Kyle Busch (led 150 laps and finished 4th)
Jimmie Johnson (led 143 laps and was leading before a restart penalty, finished 17th)

Potential First-Time Dover Winners
Clint Bowyer (finished 6th)
Kevin Harvick (finished 8th and led one lap)
Aric Almirola (finished 18th)

Pocono:
Favorites
Jimmie Johnson (WON the race and led 128 of 160 laps)
Denny Hamlin (finished 8th)
Jeff Gordon (finished 12th)

Potential First-Time Pocono Winners
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (finished 3rd)
Clint Bowyer (finished 15th)
Mark Martin (finished 19th)