Tuesday, June 11, 2013

Jimmie Johnson Won at Pocono (and how have my other predictions done)

It's been a month since our last prediction check.  Let's see how I've done.

Each week, when I film a video for BSports, I provide the names of a few drivers who I believe will do well at that upcoming track, based on the stats of their past performances.

Remember, these are the goals:

  • Highlight drivers with strengths at the specific track that weekend.
  • Identify drivers who, based on my statistical models, have a greater-than-expected chance to shine each week
  • Predict an overall winner

Let's see how I've done.

All-Star Race:
Jimmie Johnson (WON the race and led 10 laps)
Kyle Busch (led 29 laps and finished 3rd)
Ryan Newman (finished 13th)

Jeff Gordon (finished 3rd)
Kyle Busch (led 150 laps and finished 4th)
Jimmie Johnson (led 143 laps and was leading before a restart penalty, finished 17th)

Potential First-Time Dover Winners
Clint Bowyer (finished 6th)
Kevin Harvick (finished 8th and led one lap)
Aric Almirola (finished 18th)

Jimmie Johnson (WON the race and led 128 of 160 laps)
Denny Hamlin (finished 8th)
Jeff Gordon (finished 12th)

Potential First-Time Pocono Winners
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (finished 3rd)
Clint Bowyer (finished 15th)
Mark Martin (finished 19th)