Sunday, May 12, 2013

Looking Back on My Recent Predictions

It's time for another prediction review. We are due for a refresh, as the last time I did this was two month ago, after the Bristol race.

Each week, when I film a video for BSports, I provide the names of a few drivers who I believe will do well at that upcoming track, based on the stats of their past performances.

Remember, these are the goals:

  • Highlight drivers with strengths at the specific track that weekend.
  • Identify drivers who, based on my statistical models, have a greater-than-expected chance to shine each week
  • Predict an overall winner
Let's see how I've done.

Denny Hamlin (finished 2nd)
Jeff Gordon (finished 3rd and led 16 laps)
Greg Biffle (finished 13th)

Potential First Time Darlington Winners
Ryan Newman (finished 10th)
Jamie McMurray (finished 16th)
Kasey Kahne (finished 17th after spinning out while leading the race with 35 laps to go)

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (finished 17th after restarting 7th with 2 laps to go)

Dark Horses
Ricky Stenhouse (finished 13th, led 2 laps, and almost won the race if they had ended the race at at the first rain caution. Restarted 5th with two laps to go)
Brian Vickers (took over for Denny Hamlin at the first caution, but was involved in a wreck early)

Kyle Busch (finished 24th and led 40 laps.  Kyle was leading late before getting involved in a wreck)

Dark Horses
Jeff Burton (finished 5th and led 7 laps, was leading with 6 laps to go)
Carl Edwards (finished 6th and nearly took the lead from Kyle Busch late in the race)

Jimmie Johnson (finished 3rd and led 9 laps)
Greg Biffle (finished 19th)
Tony Stewart (finished 21st)

Potential First-Time Kansas Winners
Martin Truex, Jr. (finished 4th and led 46 laps)
Aric Almirola (finished 8th)
Kurt Busch (finished 15th)

Greg Biffle (finished 4th)
Matt Kenseth (finished 12th)
Tony Stewart (finished 21st)

Potential First-Time Texas Winners
Kyle Busch (WON the race and led 171 laps)
Brad Keselowski (finished 9th)
Martin Truex, Jr. (finished 2nd and led 142 laps)