Wednesday, November 18, 2009

97 percent chance Johnson takes title, 3 percent shot for Martin

After Sunday's race at Phoenix, Jimmie Johnson's lead is now 108 points over Mark Martin.

We almost don't even need a table for this week, but let's go ahead and check it out anyway.

1) First off, everybody third place on down is eliminated.

2) Martin needs to outscore Johnson by 109 points or more in this last race in order to win the title.

Obviously that's a tough task to do, basically requiring that Johnson has some sort of problem.

Let's take a look at examples from earlier this season:
A) In the spring Richmond race, Martin finished 5th and Johnson finished 36th, for a difference of 100 points.

B) In the spring Michigan race, Johnson ran out of gas and finished 22nd, while Martin won. Martin outscored him by 83 points in that race.

C) Labor day weekend in Atlanta saw Martin finish 5th and Johnson 36th, for a difference in 95 points.

D) Obviously just last week at Texas, Martin finished 4th, Johnson was 38th, for a point difference of 111 points.

3) As we see, there have been cases this year where Mark has made huge points gaps on Johnson, and it's possible that will happen again. Not likely, but possible. That's why 3 percent is still something.

You never know...Let's go Mark!

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