Thursday, October 8, 2009

Stewart, Johnson, Martin have equal Championship Winning Probabilities

Three races down, seven to go. The season is quickly winding up as the Chase rolls on.

After Sunday's race in Kansas, we now have a very different title winning probability table.

1) Obviously the big winner was Tony Stewart, as he halved the points gap to Mark Martin, and in doing so doubled his percentage chances of winning the title. What was once a two-man race between Jimmie Johnson and Mark Martin is now a three-man race with the inclusion of Stewart. You can also throw Jeff Gordon in there, who still has a great shot of winning the title, despite his lower standing in the points.

2) Is it really a coincidence that three of the greatest drivers of this generation have won the three Chase races this season? This part of the year is when the best rise to the top, and we are seeing that again. And no surprise to see Gordon right there lurking behind the three race winners.

3) Juan Montoya is the only driver with top fives in each of the three Chase races. However, he only had 2 top fives in the first 26 races, so it's unclear how hot he can stay in the final 7. If he does keep getting top fives, obviously his percentage chances will keep growing on this table.

4) Martin and Johnson's top 10 runs didn't do much to help or hurt their causes, just good runs to keep them in contention as before.

5) We now add Brian Vickers to our list of "his chance is so low we need to go past the decimal point to show it." Congrats on showing everybody your place in the Chase was indeed a fluke.

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