Thursday, October 15, 2009

Jimmie Johnson 42 Percent, Mark Martin 22 Percent, Chase Winning Percentages for Every Driver

After Sunday's race in Fontana, California, we now see a very big shakeup in the percentage standings.

1) Jimmie Johnson is the big winner in every department. He wins the race, takes the points lead, and gains 18 percentage points here, moving from 24 percent to 42 percent. His chance of winning the title is almost double the next best competitor.

2) Fortunately for Mark Martin, his fourth place finish kept him in striking distance of the points lead, and his 22 percent title chances are the same as last week. He hasn't really lost any ground versus the competition as a whole.

3) Tony Stewart, despite getting fifth place, took a bigger hit, losing six percentage points.

4) The biggest loser of the group was Denny Hamlin, who went from a six percent chance to virtually zero.

5) Six drivers have been virtually eliminated after Fontana. That's a big shakeup.

6) The top four Hendrick-powered cars now have a combined 94 percent chance of winning the title.

7) Despite the TV announcers calling this one of the closest Chases ever, I see the data showing a big divide between who has a shot and who does not.

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