Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Tony Stewart has 30 Percent Chance of Winning Title

As we did our Chase qualifying probability tables earlier this year, we are now back with the Championship percentage probability tables.

We kick it off with a simulated model of 14,950 potential outcomes in the next 10 races. And adjust for the current points standings (5000 through 5040), we get percentages for who will end the chase with the most points.

Right now we see Tony Stewart at the top of the list, with strong competition from 4 guys in particular: Hendrick drivers Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, and Mark Martin, along with our most recent race winner Denny Hamlin.

Stewart makes the top of the list because 4497 combinations out of the 14950 total end up with him winning the title. Again, this is based on performance of each driver this year.

In fact, Hamlin has scored by far the most points in the last 12 races of the season. If he repeats that performance in the final 10, he could win the title.

Unless Juan Montoya has a new trick up his sleeve, his "chase racing" strategy will not translate to any shot of winning the title.

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