Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Tony Stewart 21 Percent, Mark Martin 18 Percent: Chase Winning Probabilities for Every Driver

Coming off Mark Martin's dramatic win at New Hampshire this Sunday, we have a brand new updated table of championship probabilities.

What do we see here:

1) Martin is now only 3 percent behind Tony Stewart, after Stewart came home 14th. This is particularly encouraging for Martin, considering he had never won at Loudon before, and disliked the track so much he left it off his schedule the last two years.

2) Juan Montoya's strong run moved him higher up in the points standings, but his title percentage still stays very low. He'll need a lot more top 5s to make a dent in these percentages. It's still possible though, if he can successfully upgrade his early season "points racing" strategy.

3) The top 5 guys on this table (Stewart, Martin, Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson) have a combined 83 percent chance of winning the title. Look at these 5 for your true contenders.

4) The midpack guys in yellow (Kurt Busch, Ryan Newman, Brian Vickers, Greg Biffle, Carl Edwards) did not races to meaningfully change their situations. Their percentages stayed practically the same.

5) Kasey Kahne was never really a threat to win the title (3 percent last week), so his engine failure only set him back 2.5 percentage points (to 0.5 percent).

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