Friday, September 18, 2009

Proof that Chase Bonus Points are Meaningless

Despite all this talk about "needing to win to get those extra 10 chase bonus points", it actually turns out in the past seasons, those bonus points have been absolutely meaningless.

In the first few Chases, they gave out 5 points per rankings in the points standings. Then they switched to 10 points per win. In all cases, however, those points have not had a meaningful effect on the final championship.

The only thing that has mattered is how many points each driver scored in those final 10 races. The bonus points have been meaningless.

Here's the data:

2004: The bonus points changed 0 of the 10 final standings.

Without bonus points, Carl Edwards would beat Greg Biffle for second. (Technically Edwards was tied for second with Biffle in 2005, and without bonus points he would have been tied with Tony Stewart for first. But due to tiebreakers based on number of wins, the resulting affect would just make him second, as in reality he finished "third" in 2005, because Biffle won the tiebreaker between the two of them).

2006: Bonus points only swapped Denny Hamlin and Matt Kenseth's position in the final standings for second and third.

2007: Jeff Burton and Tony Stewart swapped sixth and seventh because of bonus points.

2008: Kyle Busch would have been 12th instead of 10th without any bonus points.

That's it! Those are the only effects bonus points have had. So forget about all this talk about "Chase Seeding". It's nonsense and has no effect on the final standings.

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