Sunday, August 9, 2009

Quantifying How Much Denny Hamlin's Bump Killed David Reutimann's Chase Chances.

In Ricky Craven's recent piece, he suggests that Reutimann lost 60 points due to Hamlin bumping him out of the way.

Let's see what that means in terms of percentage chances of making the chase.

Going into the Pocono race, Reutimann only had a 26% chance of making the Chase. He left Pocono much worse, with only a 10% chance of qualifying.

But had he earned those extra 60 points, his Chase chances would be 39% instead. Simply put:

No bump = 39%
Bump = 10%

Look at the standings this way:


Shows you how big a swing one bump can have on a guy's season. Reutimann *should* be mad at Hamlin for doing that to him. Hamlin destroyed his entire chance of making the chase. From almost a half chance of getting in, he is now a one-in-ten shot. What a disaster.

It would only be fitting for Reutimann to get some payback from Hamlin later this year.


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