Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Mark Martin 54%, Brian Vickers 46%: Chase Qualifying Probabilites For Every Driver

The dramatic end to Sunday's Michigan race brought a big shakeup in the points standings, and most especially, the probabilities for each driver's chase qualifying percentages.

Some notes of interest

1) First off, due to the strong performances of the overall driving group, I am moving up the 12th place target level from 3120 points to 3149 points.

2) This 3120 to 3149 points upgrade, along with his bad race on Sunday, is why Juan Montoya's qualifying probability went down from 99.96 percent to 99.44 percent. In any case, the bad Michigan race is not going to affect him all that much.

3) Matt Kenseth, Ryan Newman and Greg Biffle all had mediocre races, finishing outside the top 10. This brought each of their chances down between six and fifteen percent.

4) Like I said last week, Jeff Burton would not win Sunday, and he would be eliminated from the competition.

5) Alan Gustafson's big gamble for fuel ended up with Mark Martin finishing 31st, and losing a huge chunk of his Chase cushion.

6) The big winner of course is Brian Vickers, who got himself right to the edge of Chase contention. We'll see if he can use this momentum to his advantage.

7) Kyle Busch could NOT carry his momentum from last week into a good run at Michigan, and he finds himself back in the same bad spot as he did a few weeks ago.

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