Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Kyle Busch 43 Percent, Matt Kenseth 78 Percent: Updated Chase Qualifying Probabilities for Every Driver

Following up on last week's post, we have an updated Chase Qualifying Probability table.

Some notes of interest:

1) Kyle Busch doubled his chances of making the Chase by his great run at Watkins Glen on Monday.

2) David Reutimann is basically out of it at this point. He was so close a couple weeks ago, but these two Monday races have really taken him out of contention.

3) If Jeff Burton leads the most laps and wins the next 4 races, he might barely make the Chase by 10 points. Look for him to be officially eliminated next week when he doesn't win.

4) Montoya upgraded himself from 99% to 100%. His "chase racing" strategy has paid off. But is he a threat to win the title? No.

5) Mark Martin and Ryan Newman had bad days on Monday, and that took their chances down a little bit. Still, both of them have very good shots of getting in. They don't have a huge amount to worry about.

6) The good runs by Vickers and Bowyer helped them a little, but it's not enough still to make a big difference. They need to keep scoring Top 5s the rest of the way to get in.

7) There is a 54% chance that the current top 12 stays in tact. This is the first time that number has been above 50% since we've been monitoring it.

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