Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Kyle Busch 21 Percent, Greg Biffle 76 Percent: Updated Chase Qualifying Probabilities for Every Driver

Following up to last week's post, showing the chances of each driver qualifying for the Chase, here is the updated percentage table after Monday's Pocono race.

Note a few things:

1) Mark Martin and Matt Kenseth really improved their chances of making the Chase by both coming home with top 11 finishes on Monday.

2) Brian Vickers and Clint Bowyer had breakout performances Monday, and this gave them huge increases in their Chase chances. If they can keep getting top 6 finishes over the next month, they could very well make it in.

3) David Reutimann was the big loser yesterday. He went from a 26% chance to 10% Chance. That's a huge drop.

4) Not surprisingly, Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon clinched their way into the Chase.

5) The chance of anybody in the current top 12 *NOT* making the Chase moved down to 51%. There is a 49% chance the current top 12 will stay the same. This is mainly because Kyle Busch and Reutimann, who were the closest contenders, did not live up to potential, while at the same time, guys like Martin, Kenseth, and Biffle had good runs to stay well inside the top 12. This is a big improvement from last week's 67% chance that we'd see one of the top 12 drop out.

Click on the image for a bigger version.

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