Thursday, July 30, 2009

67 Percent Chance that one of the Top 12 drops out

Let's followup on yesterday's post, where I showed the probabilities of each driver qualifying for the chase.

We saw that each driver ranked between 5 and 12 had at least a 68% chance of making the chase.

However, there is ONLY A 33% CHANCE THAT THE CURRENT 12 WILL ALL QUALIFY. MOST LIKELY SOMEBODY WILL DROP OUT OF THE TOP 12.

We see this by multiplying the percentages of each driver ranked 5-12. You see this in the BOLD section of the image below.


Multiplying percentages converts individual probabilities to a GROUP probability, will ALL of these guys stay in? Only a 33% for that. The math is here if you are interested.

33% chance of nobody dropping out means a 67% chance that somebody WILL drop out. Despite individually strong qualifying chances, there's a much slimmer chance that ALL these drivers will hit their potential.

This is good news for guys like Kyle Busch and David Reutimann who are looking to break in, since chances go against everybody in front of them all doing well in the next 6 races. As long as Busch and Reutimann perform to the upper end of their own potential.


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