(BTW, Click here and here for two other Chase-scenarios I analyzed yesterday)
After 14 races now, we can throw out the worst 4 races for each driver, and see what their total points accumulation has been in their best 10 races. This would be their potential for the Chase - of course assuming they can score those best 10 races all in a row, all at the end of the year.
At least it gives some sense for the overall power of each driver. Notice that Kyle Busch is ranked 9th in these standings. Despite having the most wins, his 6th-10th best races are between 17th and 25th place. Tony's 10th best race is 8th place. A very big difference.
Without further ado, here are the rankings of drivers best 10 races this year. I only looked at the top 15 drivers in points, to include the 12 Chase drivers and 3 closest contenders.
|1393||Denny Hamlin |
|1296||Juan Pablo Montoya|
Look how Stewart/Johnson/Gordon are the clear leaders of the crowd. All former champions, all with 10-race averages above 162 Points Per Race. This is how you're going to get it done in the Chase. Based on these results, we might limit our potential championship contenders to just these three drivers. Everybody else is still too far off the pace to make a serious run. Obviously though still a lot of competition in the 1400s.
We'll pay attention later this year to see how these standings develop.