PPR and Getting into the Chase

As a biased Mark Martin fan, I sometimes focus my statistics to try to rationalize his greatness in my head and find statistics that prove my points, despite any other factual results-based evidence that other people may point to.

I am not very concerned that he is 34th place in the standings. But Mark himself was talking about how he's not putting the Chase as a priority now. That's ridiculous! We've only had 4 races, and have 22 more to go before the Chase. Let me show you how easy it is going to be for him to make it in.

Looking back over the last few years, we see what the 12th place driver had in points after 26 races. And we look at Points Per Race (PPR) to see what that average was.

In the 2004-2008 chase years, the average number of points needed to be 12th by the 26th race was about 3088, or a Points Per Race of 118.77.

Year	Points	PPR
1997	2884	111
1998	2857	110
1999	2781	107
2000	2863	110
2001	2948	113
2002	3078	118
2003	3009	116
2004	3158	121
2005	2972	114
2006	3039	117
2007	3155	121
2008	3116	120

Look already after 4 races in the standings, David Reutimann is 12th in the rankings with 475 points, or a PPR 118.75 --> nearly exactly the average 12th place PPR required to make it.

Assuming this is an average year, then Mark needs to get back to 3088 points within next 22 races. So he needs to make 2802 points in the next 22 races, a required minimum of PPR 127.4 from here on out.

If he scores 128 PPR from here, he'll just barely qualify for the chase. Look at the path below:

Race	Points	Mark's PPR	Avg PPR pace	Behind
4	286	72	475	(189)
5	414	83	594	(180)
6	542	90	713	(171)
7	670	96	831	(161)
8	798	100	950	(152)
9	926	103	1069	(143)
10	1054	105	1188	(134)
11	1182	107	1306	(124)
12	1310	109	1425	(115)
13	1438	111	1544	(106)
14	1566	112	1663	(97)
15	1694	113	1781	(87)
16	1822	114	1900	(78)
17	1950	115	2019	(69)
18	2078	115	2138	(60)
19	2206	116	2256	(50)
20	2334	117	2375	(41)
21	2462	117	2494	(32)
22	2590	118	2613	(23)
23	2718	118	2731	(13)
24	2846	119	2850	(4)
25	2974	119	2969	5
26	3102	119	3088	15

If he scores 148 PPR (6.5 average finish) he'll be back in qualifying position about 7 races from now:

Race	Points	Mark's PPR	Avg PPR pace	Behind
4	286	72	475	(189)
5	434	87	594	(160)
6	582	97	713	(131)
7	730	104	831	(101)
8	878	110	950	(72)
9	1026	114	1069	(43)
10	1174	117	1188	(14)
11	1322	120	1306	16
12	1470	123	1425	45
13	1618	124	1544	74
14	1766	126	1663	104
15	1914	128	1781	133
16	2062	129	1900	162
17	2210	130	2019	191
18	2358	131	2138	221
19	2506	132	2256	250
20	2654	133	2375	279
21	2802	133	2494	308
22	2950	134	2613	338
23	3098	135	2731	367
24	3246	135	2850	396
25	3394	136	2969	425
26	3542	136	3088	455

And if he scores a 168 PPR (about a 2.5 average finish), he'll be back in the top 12 about 4 races from now:

Race	Points	Mark's PPR	Avg PPR pace	Behind
4	286	72	475	(189)
5	454	91	594	(140)
6	622	104	713	(91)
7	790	113	831	(41)
8	958	120	950	8
9	1126	125	1069	57
10	1294	129	1188	107
11	1462	133	1306	156
12	1630	136	1425	205
13	1798	138	1544	254
14	1966	140	1663	304
15	2134	142	1781	353
16	2302	144	1900	402
17	2470	145	2019	451
18	2638	147	2138	501
19	2806	148	2256	550
20	2974	149	2375	599
21	3142	150	2494	648
22	3310	150	2613	698
23	3478	151	2731	747
24	3646	152	2850	796
25	3814	153	2969	845
26	3982	153	3088	895

So if he can just start getting some top 5s and with bonus points, he'll be back in contention very shortly. And even if he just gets 127 points per race (12th place finish), he's still going to be fine. He's definitely not that out of it. I am still holding to my prediction that he will make the Chase this year.