Friday, December 5, 2008

Rookie of the Year: Predicting their second year performance

If 2008 Rookie of the Year Regan Smith is even lucky enough to find a ride for next year, he doesn't have a great fate to look forward to.

Check out the results in points standings for these top rookies. Other than Dale Earnhardt's championship in his second season, these guys have not had much success.

A couple of them practically disappeared off the circuit altogether. Perhaps that is Regan Smith's fate...

Stats
10.3 stdev
18.4 mean
17.5 median
48 max
1 min

Counts
1 Champion
1 2-5
6 6-10
13 11-20
7 21-30
8 rest



(Note the number of wins a Rookie had is in Parentheses)

Year Rookie of the Year Next Year
2008 Regan Smith ?
2007 Juan Pablo Montoya (1) 25
2006 Denny Hamlin (2) 12
2005 Kyle Busch (2) 10
2004 Kasey Kahne 23
2003 Jamie McMurray 11
2002 Ryan Newman (1) 6
2001 Kevin Harvick (2) 21
2000 Matt Kenseth (1) 13
1999 Tony Stewart (3) 6
1998 Kenny Irwin 19
1997 Mike Skinner 21
1996 Johnny Benson 11
1995 Ricky Craven 20
1994 Jeff Burton 32
1993 Jeff Gordon 8
1992 Jimmy Hensley 32
1991 Bobby Hamilton 25
1990 Rob Moroso n/a
1989 Dick Trickle 22
1988 Ken Bouchard 48
1987 Davey Allison (2) 8
1986 Alan Kulwicki 15
1985 Ken Schrader 16
1984 Rusty Wallace 19
1983 Sterling Marlin 37
1982 Geoffrey Bodine 17
1981 Ron Bouchard (1) 8
1980 Jody Ridley (1) 5
1979 Dale Earnhardt (1) 1
1978 Ronnie Thomas 17
1977 Ricky Rudd 31
1976 Skip Manning 14
1975 Bruce Hill 23
1974 Earl Ross (1) n/a
1973 Lennie Pond 18
1972 Larry Smith 33