Tuesday, December 23, 2008

ALRL: the Adjusted Laps Raced and Led Rankings

After thinking about it a little longer, I realized that I want to make a tweak to the LRL ratings. I want to give proper credit for somebody who leads laps even if they don't finish the entire race. Right now the current LRL ratings punish somebody twice for not finishing the race.

Look at examples in the below table. If somebody leads the first 50 laps and then crashes out, I think a +10% rating is more appropriate than a -80% rating, which you could get just by racing the first 100 laps in last place and quitting the race. Consider some other scenarios as well in the table below, and see that the ALRL is a more appropriate ranking to highlight top driver performances.

Raced Led Total LRL ALRL
50 50 500 -80% 10%
75 25 500 -80% -52%
100 0 500 -80% -80%





350 100 500 -10% -1%
400 50 500 -10% -8%
450 0 500 -10% -10%


Truthfully, over the course of the season, it all evens up. Considering all the drivers that ran 36 races in 2006-2008, the average difference between LRL and ALRL was only .11%, a number that is consistent each of those three seasons. So in aggregate, there won't be much difference here, but theoretically the LRL sounds more appropriate to me.

We'll also look at all drivers from 2006-2008 to see their ALRL rankings:

2008
Driver ALRL
Jimmie Johnson 17.6%
Kyle Busch 12.4%
Carl Edwards 10.9%
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. 7.1%
Tony Stewart 2.5%
Matt Kenseth 2.1%
Denny Hamlin 2.1%
Greg Biffle 1.9%
Clint Bowyer 1.1%
Jeff Gordon 0.1%
Kevin Harvick 0.0%
David Ragan -0.4%
Bobby Labonte -1.0%
David Reutimann -1.6%
Travis Kvapil -1.8%
Jeff Burton -1.8%
Jamie McMurray -1.9%
Kurt Busch -2.6%
Kasey Kahne -2.8%
Paul Menard -2.9%
Michael Waltrip -3.5%
Juan Pablo Montoya -3.7%
Brian Vickers -4.1%
Ryan Newman -4.4%
Martin Truex, Jr. -4.9%
David Gilliland -5.7%
Casey Mears -6.5%
Elliott Sadler -7.8%
Robby Gordon -7.8%


2007
Driver ALRL
Jimmie Johnson 10.0%
Jeff Gordon 9.5%
Tony Stewart 7.3%
Matt Kenseth 6.3%
Kurt Busch 5.8%
Denny Hamlin 4.6%
Kyle Busch 3.3%
Clint Bowyer 2.3%
Kevin Harvick 1.6%
Martin Truex, Jr. 1.5%
Carl Edwards -0.6%
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. -1.0%
Kasey Kahne -1.7%
Jeff Burton -3.4%
Casey Mears -3.6%
Ryan Newman -3.8%
Elliott Sadler -3.9%
Jamie McMurray -4.0%
Bobby Labonte -4.3%
Juan Pablo Montoya -4.4%
Greg Biffle -5.0%
David Stremme -6.5%
David Ragan -6.9%
J.J. Yeley -7.4%
David Gilliland -10.2%
Reed Sorenson -13.4%


2006
Driver ALRL
Matt Kenseth 10.1%
Tony Stewart 7.9%
Kevin Harvick 7.5%
Jimmie Johnson 7.3%
Jeff Gordon 4.2%
Greg Biffle 2.5%
Kasey Kahne 1.6%
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. 1.5%
Denny Hamlin 1.3%
Mark Martin 0.9%
Jeff Burton 0.4%
Kyle Busch -0.4%
Carl Edwards -1.1%
Dave Blaney -1.6%
Joe Nemechek -2.0%
Clint Bowyer -2.3%
Casey Mears -2.5%
Kurt Busch -4.1%
Brian Vickers -4.6%
Kyle Petty -4.7%
Ryan Newman -4.7%
Jeff Green -4.9%
J.J. Yeley -4.9%
Martin Truex, Jr. -5.2%
Jamie McMurray -5.9%
Bobby Labonte -6.0%
Sterling Marlin -6.5%
Reed Sorenson -6.6%
Elliott Sadler -7.5%
Dale Jarrett -7.5%
Robby Gordon -13.6%
Ken Schrader -13.7%