Why Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Denny Hamlin Should Race More Often on Saturdays

There has been much debate about whether Sprint Cup drivers should also be running in the support series races (Nationwide and Truck series). We've heard terms like “Buschwhackers” or "claim jumpers" to refer to drivers who consistently do the weekend double. We also have seen rule changes to deter veteran Cup drivers from racing in the support series, thereby opening up more spots for younger drivers.

Does running a race the day before help or hurt the performance for Sprint Cup drivers in their Cup races? Do these "warm-up" races earlier in the weekend help a driver when it matters most? Those are the questions we explore in this article.

One school of thought is that the warm-up races are helpful. Drivers stay sharp with extra seat time, and are happiest racing. Besides, it's better than sitting around doing nothing. Proponents of this philosophy also believe that more time on the track serves as a learning lesson for what will happen the next day, giving them a leg up over the Cup competition.

Then there is the opposite theory: that drivers need to stay focused on just their Sprint Cup duties. Advocates of this position argue that any other racing is a distraction from a full commitment to your Cup car. Drivers should spend the weekend improving their car, communicating with their crew chief, and fine tuning the setup. Trying to handle multiple races in the same weekend can be overwhelming physically, mentally, and emotionally. Cup performance will suffer as a result. After all, it’s better to do one thing well than to do two things poorly.

So which theory is right?

As usual, we turn to the data.

I looked at all races run in the big 3 series, starting in the year 2000. I filtered out only the drivers who had a minimum of 15 Sprint Cup races with, and 15 races without, a "warm-up" race. For our experiment, we define a "warm-up" as racing the day immediately prior to a Sprint Cup race.

A first glance at Figure 1 indicates that, for the most part, the warm-up races do not affect average finish in the Cup series. The diagonal line is where the warm-up races have no effect. You can see that most drivers are very near that line.

But let’s take a closer look: this overall effect is not true for all drivers. Some are significantly above or below the diagonal line.

Two things stand out:

1)    Most drivers benefit from having a warm-up race (we can claim this because a majority of the points are above the line)

2)    The drivers that are hurt by warm-up races are hurt a lot (the points below the line are generally much further away from the line than the ones above)

It turns out that most drivers do slightly better with a warm-up race, and other drivers do worse.  The ones that do worse can often do significantly worse.

Figure 2 breaks down these differences. Here we focus on the bigger names in the sport, filtering in drivers with above-average results:

The bars in Figure 2 show the improvement a driver has in average finish when they run a warm-up race the previous day.

Denny Hamlin and Dale Earnhardt Jr. improve about 3 spots in their average finish with a warm-up race already under their belt.

In contrast, Kurt Busch does worse by 8 spots, and Brad Keselowski is not far behind with a drop of 6 spots.

What have we learned today?

This analysis reveals several interesting ideas.

1)    Going back to our pair of competing philosophies around warm-up races: it turns out that both are right; depending on the driver, warm-up races can be a good thing or a bad thing.

2)    The effect is asymmetric: most drivers benefit slightly, and some drivers are hurt in a big way

3)    Denny Hamlin and Dale Jr. should be getting into more Nationwide races, to help their Sprint Cup efforts. Kurt and Brad, on the other hand, might want to consider throwing in more rest days.

Video of Volatility Article Plus All-Star Race Preview

Kyle Busch and Kasey Kahne are NASCAR's Most Volatile Drivers

(This is a cross-post with StatsInsights)

A driver's average finish is often discussed in the media as a benchmark for how well that driver performs. However, this statistic only gives part of the picture; to really get a complete sense of a driver's performance, we also need to consider the volatility of those finishes.

What do we mean by volatility? Let's start with an example.

If driver A finishes 10^th and 10^th in two races, that's an average finish of 10.  But if driver B finishes 1^st and 19^th in two races, that's also an average of finish of 10. However, driver B shows a lot more volatility in getting to the same average.

Drivers with higher volatility are more likely to have extreme finishes. Lower volatility means the drivers consistently finish around the same spot. The statistical parameter that we'll use to help us make this assessment is the standard deviation of a driver's race results.

Looking at the Data

Figure 1 shows all the drivers who have run at least 100 races since 2005 (when Loop Data statistics became available) and who have had an overall average finish better than 22 (to discard teams with consistently bad results, start-and-park teams, etc).

We see here that Kyle Busch, Kasey Kahne, and Kurt Busch are the three most volatile drivers. They have a history of extreme finishes, which means that they are more likely than other drivers to either finish way up front or way in the back.

Notice that championship drivers are generally in the upper half of the volatility scale. Jimmie Johnson, Kurt Busch, Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, and Brad Keselowski all show above-average volatility compared to other drivers. This suggests that volatility is a good thing, not a bad thing: In order to win championships, you need some volatility (but not too much).

Figure 2 shows the most volatile individual driver seasons since 2005:

What observations can we make?

Notice we see many of the top drivers on this list.  In fact, drivers like Matt Kenseth, who don't normally seem to have extreme finishes, still appear on this list.

Also notice in Figure 2 we see Mark Martin's 2009 season. This season is interesting because he was 34^th in points after 4 races, but got all the way to second in the final points standings. That's because of high volatility: engine failures and crashes early in the year, followed by a string of wins later in the year.

Jimmie Johnson has three seasons on this list, but in two of them, he didn't win the title. And in 2010, he had to come from behind in the final race of the year to win the cup. Other than Johnson in 2010, there are no championship seasons shown in Figure 2.

This data helps reinforce the idea that there's an "ideal" level of volatility, an above-average amount that can help a driver have a great season.

Applications

How can people use this info? If you are a fantasy league player or team owner, it's important to look beyond just the average finish when you pick which drivers you think are going to do well. Look at their volatility too, because that suggests the ability to get race wins (but also an increased tendency to crash out of races). High volatility drivers give you more risk and more upside. Low volatility drivers are consistent, but the numbers suggest they probably won't win you many races.

Look at the example below in Figure 3. You see that Kyle Busch has about the same average finish as Mark Martin, Greg Biffle, and Clint Bowyer (similar sized magenta bars). But if you were betting on who would win a race, you'd want to go with Busch because he has a much higher volatility.

The key is adding this second datapoint for every driver to get a better picture for how they are driving. A driver needs to have some volatility to have a great season. Not too much, but just the right amount.

                      

Looking Back on My Recent Predictions

It's time for another prediction review. We are due for a refresh, as the last time I did this was two month ago, after the Bristol race.

Each week, when I film a video for BSports, I provide the names of a few drivers who I believe will do well at that upcoming track, based on the stats of their past performances.

Remember, these are the goals:

• Highlight drivers with strengths at the specific track that weekend.
• Identify drivers who, based on my statistical models, have a greater-than-expected chance to shine each week
• Predict an overall winner

Let's see how I've done.

Darlington:

Favorites

Denny Hamlin (finished 2nd)

Jeff Gordon (finished 3rd and led 16 laps)

Greg Biffle (finished 13th)

Potential First Time Darlington Winners

Ryan Newman (finished 10th)

Jamie McMurray (finished 16th)

Kasey Kahne (finished 17th after spinning out while leading the race with 35 laps to go)

Talladega:

Favorite

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (finished 17th after restarting 7th with 2 laps to go)

Dark Horses

Ricky Stenhouse (finished 13th, led 2 laps, and almost won the race if they had ended the race at at the first rain caution. Restarted 5th with two laps to go)

Brian Vickers (took over for Denny Hamlin at the first caution, but was involved in a wreck early)

Richmond:

Favorite

Kyle Busch (finished 24th and led 40 laps.  Kyle was leading late before getting involved in a wreck)

Dark Horses

Jeff Burton (finished 5th and led 7 laps, was leading with 6 laps to go)

Carl Edwards (finished 6th and nearly took the lead from Kyle Busch late in the race)

Kansas:

Favorites

Jimmie Johnson (finished 3rd and led 9 laps)

Greg Biffle (finished 19th)

Tony Stewart (finished 21st)

Potential First-Time Kansas Winners

Martin Truex, Jr. (finished 4th and led 46 laps)

Aric Almirola (finished 8th)

Kurt Busch (finished 15th)

Texas:

Favorites

Greg Biffle (finished 4th)

Matt Kenseth (finished 12th)

Tony Stewart (finished 21st)

Potential First-Time Texas Winners

Kyle Busch (WON the race and led 171 laps)

Brad Keselowski (finished 9th)

Martin Truex, Jr. (finished 2nd and led 142 laps)

BSports Video Reviewing the Famous Article and Previewing Darlington

What Makes a Driver Famous?

(This is a cross-post with StatsInsights)

We know that the most popular NASCAR drivers aren’t necessarily the ones with the most wins. Or the most points in the standings. Popularity of NASCAR drivers, as with anything else, is something that is elusive and tricky to quantify. That’s the subject of this post: What makes a driver famous?

This question matters a lot in NASCAR: popularity increases a driver's longevity by bringing in sponsorship money. Real dollars are at stake.

Using Google Trends as our proxy, let's consider the amount of search interest as an indicator of fame.  This is a reasonable metric because it suggests how many people are looking up this driver online, trying to find out more information. Of course, this could be due to negative reasons (e.g. a scandal) but we won’t filter out “good” publicity or “bad” publicity in this post: we just focus on which drivers are getting the most general interest, for better or worse, in online searches.

In the end, there are only a few basic factors that move the needle:

• The Winners
• Missing Races
• Fights
• Daytona
• The Funnies

The Winners

For some guys, yes, it's about winning. This is Jimmie Johnson's trend. His top peaks are when he won a championship (points L, I, E) or a Daytona 500 (points M and A)

Figure 1: Jimmie Johnson

The winner this past weekend at Talladega was David Ragan. His peak in search interest is happening right now, based on this win.

Figure 2: David Ragan

Another driver for whom winning matters most is Brad Keselowski, who had a spike this past November when he won the Sprint Cup title:

Figure 3: Brad Keselowski

Danica Patrick, a Sprint Cup rookie, peaked in 2005 during her almost-win at the Indy 500. Nothing she has done in NASCAR yet has broken through that level of online interest. Her highest rank since then was just three months ago when she had a great Daytona 500. She didn't win in 2005 at Indy or this year at Daytona, but was in contention very late.

Figure 4: Danica Patrick

Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s online interest has slightly dropped off in the last 4 years as his wins have been harder to come by. Notice the graph is much lower after 2009 than before. He is still considered one of the most popular and marketable drivers on the circuit, but this chart suggests perhaps there has been a slight drop in mainstream interest over the past few years.

Figure 5: Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

Paul Menard, has won only one Sprint Cup race, and you guessed it, that's his peak, back in the summer of 2011:

Figure 6: Paul Menard

Missing Races

A driver who showed a peak that did not involve a win was Kyle Busch in November 2011, when he was suspended for intentionally wrecking Ron Hornaday:

Figure 7: Kyle Busch

Kurt Busch displays a similar spike in 2006 (point M) when he was suspended by Roush Racing for the final two races of the season:

Figure 8: Kurt Busch

Brian Vickers had a high score in 2006 when he won his first race, at Talladega, but saw a much higher peak in 2010 when he was hospitalized for blood clots:

Figure 9: Brian Vickers

Fights

Clint Bowyer is another driver, like Kyle Busch, who got the most online interest for aggressive action. The peak (point A) is from his fight with Jeff Gordon at the end of 2012.

Figure 10: Clint Bowyer

In Joey Logano's case, his fight with Denny Hamlin, and their crash at Fontana was his peak:

Figure 11: Joey Logano

Not surprisingly, Denny Hamlin also saw a peak then:

Figure 12: Denny Hamlin

Carl Edwards saw a peak in 2009, when his car was sent into the fence at Talladega, in a last lap collision with Brad Keselowski:

Figure 13: Carl Edwards

Daytona

Mark Martin's peak came in 2007 when he was beaten by just inches in the Daytona 500:

Figure 14: Mark Martin

The driver who beat Martin was Kevin Harvick, and that Daytona 500 win was also his peak:

Figure 15: Kevin Harvick

Trevor Bayne's Daytona 500 win is far and away his most notable accomplishment, and the data matches:

Figure 16: Trevor Bayne

Ryan Newman's Daytona 500 win mattered more to his fame than any other of his many career wins:

Figure 17: Ryan Newman

Daytona is so important to NASCAR that each year's annual peak in interest comes from the Daytona 500 (points A, C, E below), not the championship chase races at the end of the year. And the ultimate NASCAR peak is that 2007 Daytona 500 (point L) when Harvick and Martin battled for the win.

Figure 18: NASCAR

The Funnies

Jeff Gordon's peak came just a couple months ago when that Pepsi viral video came out.

Figure 19: Jeff Gordon

Ricky Stenhouse became Internet famous only once people learned he was dating Danica:

Figure 20: Ricky Stenhouse

The Lesson Here

If a driver wants to gain attention, it really does come down to winning.  Especially at Daytona. Or being in a huge wreck. Or getting into a fight. Or getting suspended. Or dating Danica.